Demand PlanningHistorical Analysis
Historical Analysis
What actually happened, and how close the model was each month.
12-month actual
$97.1M
11%
12-month forecast
$95.5M
Forecast bias
-1.6%
Demand units
84,412
Actual vs forecast by month
Monthly detail
| Month | Actual | Forecast | Variance | Variance % | Demand units |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep | $7.3M | $7.1M | +$260K | 3.7% | 6,378 |
| Oct | $8.4M | $7.8M | +$548K | 7.0% | 7,301 |
| Nov | $8.3M | $8.9M | $-611K | -6.9% | 7,194 |
| Dec | $9.6M | $9.4M | +$251K | 2.7% | 8,369 |
| Jan | $9.1M | $9.2M | $-114K | -1.2% | 7,894 |
| Feb | $9.1M | $8.7M | +$419K | 4.8% | 7,956 |
| Mar | $7.5M | $7.9M | $-395K | -5.0% | 6,563 |
| Apr | $8.0M | $7.4M | +$589K | 8.0% | 6,925 |
| May | $7.5M | $7.4M | +$106K | 1.4% | 6,509 |
| Jun | $6.9M | $6.9M | +$59K | 0.9% | 6,010 |
| Jul | $6.9M | $7.2M | $-383K | -5.3% | 5,968 |
| Aug | $8.4M | $7.6M | +$808K | 10.6% | 7,345 |
What the history tells us
Demand growth has averaged 1.4% per month with a strong Q4 lift. The model under-forecast three of the last four months, mainly because unplanned shutdown orders are not captured by the statistical baseline — they now enter the model as an event feature.
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Past forecasts for accuracy and bias tracking.
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Expected columns: period, forecast, actual
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